Lucentis in Advanced Macular Degeneration
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-09-30, after 2009-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: advancedtherapytreatedconcurrenteffective
Phrases that lowered it: ranibizumabmaculareye20visual -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1498 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 649 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ranibizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Randomized Study for Efficacy and Safety of Ranibizumab 0.5mg in Treat-extend and Monthly Regimens in Patients With nAMD NCT01948830 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- A Study of Ranibizumab Administered Monthly or on an As-needed Basis in Patients With Subfoveal Neovascular Age-related Macular Degeneration (HARBOR) NCT00891735 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- A Prospective Study Comparing Ranibizumab Plus Dexamethasone Combination Therapy Versus Ranibizumab Monotherapy for Wet AMD NCT00793923 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Prophylactic Ranibizumab for Exudative Age-related Macular Degeneration NCT02140151 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- Prophylactic Ranibizumab for Exudative Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT02302989 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.