ANRS HC20 Effectiveness of an Optimized Anti HCV PegIFN-alpha2a + Ribavirin on Sustained Virological Response in Patients With HCV Genotype 1 and 4 Non Responders and Co-infected With HIV

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (122 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mriequal tocarcinomactcell
  Phrases that lowered it: hcvgenotypekgribavirinvisit
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pilot Study to Assess the Efficacy of and Tolerance to a QUadruple Therapy to Treat HIV-HCV Coinfected Patients Previously Null Responders NCT01725542 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Retreatment With High Doses of pegIFN Alfa-2a and Ribavirin of Previous Nonresponders HIV-coinfected Patients With Cirrhosis Due to HCV 1-4 NCT01006031 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Therapy With Asunaprevir, Daclatasvir, Ribavirin and Pegylated Interferon Alpha-2a in HCV Genotype 4-infected Patients Who Have Failed to a Previous Therapy With Peg-Interferon/Ribavirin (ANRS HC32 QUATTRO) NCT02107365 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Dutch Acute HCV in HIV Study (DAHHS-2): Grazoprevir/Elbasvir for Acute HCV NCT02600325 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Oral Antivirals (GS-5885, Tegobuvir, and/or GS-9451) With Peginterferon Alfa 2a and Ribavirin in Treatment Experienced Subjects With Chronic Genotype 1 Hepatitis C Virus Infection NCT01371578 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.