Trial of Fulvestrant, MK-0646, and Dasatinib for Metastatic Hormone Receptor-Positive HER2-Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerpatients mustsquamous cellcoronaryheart
  Phrases that lowered it: mkreceivedlesionslineaminotransferase
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 159 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 210 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dasatinib In Combination With Trastuzumab And Paclitaxel In First Line Treatment Of Her2-Positive MBC Patients NCT01306942 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Trial of Dasatinib Plus Ixabepilone in 2nd or 3rd Line Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00924352 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation and Expansion Study of GSK525762 in Combination With Fulvestrant in Participants With Hormone Receptor-positive (HR+)/Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Negative (HER2-) Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02964507 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• Phase II Short-term Adjuvant Therapy and Biomarker Studies With Targeted Agents in Women With Estrogen Receptor Negative Breast Cancer NCT01471106 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Dasatinib In Combination With Weekly Paclitaxel For Patients With Metastatic Breast Carcinoma CA 180 194 NCT00820170 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.