Lyophilized IMVAMUNE® (1x10^8 TCID50) Versus Liquid IMVAMUNE® (1x10^8 TCID50) Administered Subcutaneously and a Lower Dose Liquid IMVAMUNE® (2x10^7 TCID50) Administered Intradermally

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (122 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancersubject iskidneythe subjectnegative
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationreceipthealthyformulation
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 784 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 38 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• High Dose IMVAMUNE® in Vaccinia-Naive Individuals NCT00879762 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Phase II Trial to Assess Safety and Immunogenicity of IMVAMUNE® NCT01827371 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety and Immunogenicity of One and Two Doses of IMVAMUNE® Smallpox Vaccine in 56-80 Year Old Vaccinia-experienced Subjects NCT00857493 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Evaluate Immunogenicity and Safety of Three Consecutive Production Lots of IMVAMUNE® (MVA-BN®) Smallpox Vaccine in Healthy, Vaccinia-naïve Subjects NCT01144637 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Trial to Compare a Liquid-frozen and a Freeze-dried Formulation of IMVAMUNE (MVA-BN®) Smallpox Vaccine in Vaccinia-naïve Healthy Subjects NCT01668537 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.