Trial of Image-Guided Adaptive Conformal Photon vs Proton Therapy, With Concurrent Chemotherapy, for Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Carcinoma: Treatment Related Pneumonitis and Locoregional Recurrence

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationadvancedcellcarcinomatumor
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicalmonths beforeliverbodyweight
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 175 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 184 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Proton Radiation Therapy With Cisplatin and Etoposide Followed by Surgery in Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01565772 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Combined CFRT and SABR in Stage II and III NSCLC With Peripheral Tumors Smaller Than 5 cm. NCT01933568 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Platinum Doublet Chemotherapy and Proton Beam Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Stage II-III Non-small Cell Lung Cancer That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT03132532 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Proton Beam Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer That Can Be Removed By Surgery NCT01076231 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Proton Beam Radiation With Concurrent Chemotherapy and Nelfinavir for Inoperable Stage III Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT01108666 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.