Efficacy of 5-azacytidine Added to Standard Primary Therapy in Elderly Patients With Newly Diagnosed Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: primarypatientradiationulncardiac
  Phrases that lowered it: 20amlto participateparticipate intrial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Azacytidine (Vidaza®) Versus Fludarabine and Cytarabine (Fluga Scheme) in Elderly Patients With Newly Diagnosed Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT02319135 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Azacitidine in Treating Patients With Newly Diagnosed Previously Untreated or Secondary Acute Myeloid Leukemia Who Are Unsuitable For Intensive Chemotherapy NCT00739388 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Azacitidine, Mitoxantrone Hydrochloride, and Etoposide in Treating Older Patients With Poor-Prognosis Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT01260714 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Trial to Assess the Efficacy and Toxicity of Induction and Consolidation With CPX-351 for Patients Aged 60 to 75 Years With Secondary or High-risk Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT04230239 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• A Randomized Placebo-controlled Phase 2 Study of Decitabine With or Without Eltrombopag in AML Patients NCT02446145 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.