To Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of OPC-6535 in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withcttumortimeprimary
  Phrases that lowered it: copdfev1chronic obstructiveobstructive pulmonarypulmonary disease
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study To Examine The Safety, Pharmacokinetics And Pharmacodynamics Of PF-03635659 In Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT01033487 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of AZD1981 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT00690482 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Two Dose Levels of AZD2115 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe COPD NCT02109406 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Twice Daily 60mg AZD9668 in COPD for 12 Weeks in Patients on Background Budesonide/Formoterol NCT01023516 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A 24-week Evaluation of GSK573719/Vilanterol (62.5/25mcg) and Components in COPD NCT01313650 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.