Sorafenib for Patients With Metastatic or Recurrent Esophageal and Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-08-31, after 2009-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: bowelcancerheartradiationpotential
Phrases that lowered it: sorafenibbleedingcriteria patientslesionspatients who -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 68 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 239 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 239 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 1.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 68 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3177 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 994 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 73.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 16.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- sorafenib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Sorafenib in Treating Patients With Advanced Malignant Solid Tumors NCT00810394 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Sorafenib and Dacarbazine in Soft Tissue Sarcoma NCT00837148 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Sorafenib. ICORG 06-41, V4 NCT01158287 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- Phase II Randomized Trial of the Combination of Cetuximab and Sorafenib or Single Agent Cetuximab NCT00939627 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
- Evaluate Safety and Tolerability in Dose Escalation of Sorafenib in Advanced Renal Cell Cancer NCT01189370 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.