Effect of AIN457 on Ozone-induced Airway Neutrophilia Compared to Placebo and Corticosteroid in Healthy Subjects
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: majorprior treatmentagentprotocol defineddisease
Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteerssubjectsscreeningassess the -
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 173 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 153 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 153 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 173 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 12616 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3318 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- prednisolone, secukinumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluation of the Effect of PUR118 on Ozone Induced Airway Inflammation in Healthy Normal Volunteers NCT01690949 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1 Study of AIR645 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Controlled Asthma NCT00658749 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- AKITA Inhaled Steroid Suspension for Inhalation (AICS) in Subjects With Asthma NCT01200108 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Study to Investigate the Effect of a Single Dose of AZD7624 on Inflammation Caused by an Endotoxin Challenge NCT01937338 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Single Dose Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) Study In Healthy Volunteers NCT01314885 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.