Effects of Aliskiren, Ramipril, and the Combination on Levels of Angiotensin II in Patients With Decompensated Systolic Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heart failurebrainiimyocardialinfarction
  Phrases that lowered it: plasmaevaluate thestudy topharmacokineticto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 167 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Aliskiren and Aliskiren/Enalapril Combination on Morbidity-mortality in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure NCT00853658 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Add On Aliskiren in Patients With Heart Failure and Renal Impairment NCT00881439 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
• Six Months Efficacy and Safety of Aliskiren Therapy on Top of Standard Therapy, on Morbidity and Mortality in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure NCT00894387 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Compare the Effect of Aliskiren Plus Valsartan Versus Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor (ACEi) Plus Angiotensin Receptor Blocker (ARB) [Ramipril Plus Telmisartan] on the Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System (RAAS) in Hypertensive Patients NCT00939588 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Patiromer for the Management of Hyperkalemia in Subjects Receiving RAASi Medications for the Treatment of Heart Failure (DIAMOND) NCT03888066 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.