Aerosolized Hypertonic Xylitol Versus Hypertonic Saline in Cystic Fibrosis (CF) Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (40 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantfractionsubjects withlungevidence of
  Phrases that lowered it: fev1weeksdailyexacerbationsafety
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Inhaled Xylitol Versus Saline in Stable Subjects With Cystic Fibrosis NCT01355796 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• The Effect of Hypertonic Saline on the Lung Clearance Index in Patients With Cystic Fibrosis NCT00635141 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of VX-371 in Subjects With Cystic Fibrosis Who Are Homozygous for the F508del-CFTR Mutation NCT02709109 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Durability of Hypertonic Saline for Enhancing Mucociliary Clearance in Cystic Fibrosis NCT01094704 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Saline Hypertonic in Preschoolers + CT NCT02950883 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.