Safety and Efficacy Study of CYT387 in Primary Myelofibrosis (PMF) or Post-polycythemia Vera (PV) or Post-essential Thrombocythemia (ET)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartcelluncontrolledcancerstudy drug
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsaminotransferaseessentialpharmacodynamicsinvestigator
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Extension Study Evaluating the Long Term Safety and Efficacy Study of CYT387 in Primary Myelofibrosis (PMF) or Post-polycythemia Vera (PV) or Post-essential Thrombocythemia (ET) NCT01236638 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Safety Study Evaluating Twice-Daily Administration of Momelotinib in Primary Myelofibrosis or Post-Polycythemia Vera or Post-Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis NCT01423058 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• CC-4047 in Treating Patients With Myelofibrosis NCT00669578 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study of Ruxolitinib in Patients With Primary Myelofibrosis (PM), Post-polycythemia Vera (PV) Myelofibrosis, or Post-essential Thrombocythemia (ET) Myelofibrosis NCT02087059 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of CPX-351 Monotherapy in Acute Myeloid Leukemia Secondary to Myeloproliferative Neoplasm NCT04992949 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.