The Study Will Evaluate the Effect of AZD9164 in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientspatienteffectslungplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: copdsingle dosechronic obstructiveobstructive pulmonarypulmonary disease
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 34.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 335 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 638 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 5242 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Study Will Evaluate the Effect of AZD8683 in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01205269 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Single-dose Study to Investigate the Effects of 4 Different Doses of Inhaled AZD8683 in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Patients NCT01708057 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated
• A Single-dose Study to Investigate the Effects of 3 Different Doses of Inhaled AZD2115 in COPD Patients NCT01498081 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Tolerability/Safety and Efficacy of Inhaled AZD4818 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT00629239 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Dose Range Finding Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of AZD9668 Administered Orally at Three Dose Levels to Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) on Treatment With Tiotropium NCT00949975 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.