Dual Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Inhibition With Erlotinib and Panitumumab With or Without Chemotherapy for Advanced Colorectal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-01-31, after 2010-01-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapyirinotecanmetastatictumor
Phrases that lowered it: 20trial ischaracteristicsmmtimes -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 55 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 109 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 109 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 22.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 55 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 7012 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1762 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erlotinib, irinotecan, panitumumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Erlotinib and Chemotherapy for 2nd Line Treatment (Tx) of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (mCRC) NCT00642746 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
- Panitumumab and Irinotecan as Third-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00655499 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Irinotecan and Panitumumab as 3rd Line Treatment for mCRC Without KRAS Mutations NCT00792363 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate Mechanisms of Acquired Resistance to Panitumumab NCT00891930 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Panitumumab in Cetuximab Refractory KRAS Wild-Type Colorectal Cancer NCT00842257 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.