An Efficacy and Safety Study of PH-10 Aqueous Hydrogel for the Treatment of Plaque Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjecttherapyof studywomen ofsubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasistopicalplaqueand safetyefficacy and
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Randomized Study of PH-10 for Psoriasis NCT01247818 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study of Cellular and Immunologic Changes in the Skin of Subjects Receiving PH-10 NCT02322086 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study of PH-10 for the Treatment of Atopic Dermatitis NCT00690807 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study to Determine the Efficacy and Safety of Halobetasol Propionate Lotion 0.05% in Subjects With Plaque Psoriasis NCT01610596 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A 12-Day Randomized, Blinded, Vehicle and Active Comparator-Controlled Study to Determine the Efficacy and Safety of Six Concentrations of Topical E6201 Gel in Subjects With Psoriasis Vulgaris NCT01268527 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.