Evaluation of a Lopinavir/Ritonavir Monotherapy vs a Triple Therapy as Maintenance Regimens in HIV-1 Infected Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (56 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-01-31, after 2009-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 43.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientstherapypatientphase iifailure
Phrases that lowered it: tabletsingleefficacy andhiv rnahiv infected -
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 44 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 43.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 15 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8461 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1784 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 15.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, immunology, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- efavirenz, efavirenz emtricitabine tenofovir disoproxil, lopinavir, lopinavir ritonavir, tenofovir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Cenicriviroc (CVC) in Combination With Truvada or Sustiva Plus Truvada in HIV 1-infected, Antiretroviral Treatment-naïve, Adult Patients Infected With Only CCR5-tropic Virus NCT01338883 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Raltegravir + Lopinavir/Ritonavir Versus Efavirenz + Tenofovir + Emtricitabine in Treatment Naive Patients NCT00752856 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Antiretroviral Treatment Taken 4 Days Per Week Versus Continuous Therapy 7/7 Days Per Week in HIV-1 Infected Patients NCT03256422 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Study of Oral Weekly GS-1720 and GS-4182 Compared With Biktarvy in People With HIV-1 Who Have Not Been Treated NCT06613685 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
- Multicentric Open-label Study of Switch From Abacavir/Lamivudine Fixed Dose Combination Plus Nevirapine to Abacavir/Lamivudine/Dolutegravir in Virologically Suppressed HIV-1 Infected Adults (SWAD) NCT02067767 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.