BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) Versus Chemotherapy as First Line Treatment in NSCLC With EGFR Mutation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-03-16, after 2009-08-14 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-03-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stagechemotherapybrainnsclcsmall
Phrases that lowered it: open labelpatientsrandomisedrandomisationgroup -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 198 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 86 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 198 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 10942 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2277 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- afatinib, cisplatin, pemetrexed
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) vs Gemcitabine-cisplatin in 1st Line Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT01121393 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A Phase II Trial of Afatinib(BIBW 2992) in Third-line Treatment for Patients With Stage IIIB/IV Adenocarcinoma of the Lung Harbouring Wild-type Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor[EGFR] NCT01003899 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- BIBW 2992 and BSC Versus Placebo and BSC in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Failing Erlotinib or Gefitinib (LUX-LUNG 1) NCT00656136 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- Trial of BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) + Cetuximab in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01090011 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- BIBW2992 (Afatinib) in Advanced (EGFR-FISH +) NSCLC (Non Small Cell Lung Cancer) Patients NCT00796549 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.