PREventative Study Against URate-Lowering Drug-Induced Gout Exacerbations (PRE-SURGE 2)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-12-31, after 2009-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: acutecancerprimarytherapyto determine
Phrases that lowered it: metabolismand safetydiseasesefficacy andsafety of -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 12 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 13 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- rilonacept
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- PREventative Study Against URate-lowering Drug-induced Gout Exacerbations 1 NCT00829829 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Review of Safety Using Rilonacept in Preventing Gout Exacerbations (RE-SURGE) NCT00856206 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Long-Term Rilonacept Treatment for the Prevention of Gout Flares NCT01459796 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
- Study Utilizing Rilonacept in Gout Exacerbations NCT00855920 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- A Proof-of-Concept Study of AC-201 to Prevent Gout Flares NCT01712204 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.