Safety and Efficacy of TKI258 in FGFR1 Amplified and Non-amplified Metastatic HER2 Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticpatients mustcancerbraincardiac
  Phrases that lowered it: openlabelbreast cancerdiseaseshormone
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 194 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 176 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Chemotherapy and Lapatinib or Trastuzumab in Treating Women With HER2/Neu-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00667251 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Poziotinib in Patients With HER2+ Recurrent Stage IV BC Who Have Received at Least 2 Prior HER2-directed Regimens NCT02418689 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• LUX-Breast 2; Afatinib in HER2 (Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor)-Treatment Failures NCT01271725 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Trastuzumab Therapy in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients NCT00758134 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Study of Poziotinib in Participants With HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02659514 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.