AZD2423 Single Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Japanese Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilityascendingtolerability andand pharmacokineticsthe subject
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyproductsvolunteerssinglekg
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 359 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 672 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AZD8529 Single Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Japanese Subjects NCT00886756 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• AZD7325 Single Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Male Japanese Subjects NCT00769899 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD2423 in Healthy Volunteers NCT00940212 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetic (PK) of AZD1704 in Healthy Japanese Male and Non-Fertile Female Volunteers NCT00736788 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• A Single and Multiple Ascending Dose Study With AZD9164 Given for 13 Days in Healthy Male and Female Japanese Subjects NCT01096563 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.