A 2-Part Trial in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes and in Healthy Subjects to Evaluate GSK1614235, a New Glucose Lowering Drug to Treat Type 2 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-09-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: msldltolerabilityheartcholesterol
  Phrases that lowered it: healthytype diabetesmetformingrapefruitdrug
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 22.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1048 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 454 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of GSK2330672 in Type 2 Diabetes Patients Taking Metformin NCT01929863 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study in Type 2 Diabetics of Single and Multiple Doses of Orally Administered GSK1292263 to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics NCT01119846 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Single Dose, Pharmacokinetic, Safety, Tolerability and QTc Study of GSK1278863 in Healthy Volunteers NCT02293148 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1 Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of GSK1362885 in Healthy Normal Subjects NCT00823940 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Relative Bioavailability of Three Formulations and Food Effect on GSK1322322 in Healthy Subjects NCT01648179 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.