Evaluating the Safety and the Biological Effects of Intratumoral Interferon Gamma and a Peptide-Based Vaccine in Patients With Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsmelanomatumortherapygreater than
  Phrases that lowered it: participantstopicalclinicaltrialadministration
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Combination Therapy of Topical Imiquimod Plus Multipeptide Vaccination for Cutaneous Metastases of Melanoma NCT01264731 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• A Multipeptide Vaccine Plus Toll-Like Receptor Agonists in Melanoma Patients NCT01585350 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of a Helper Peptide Vaccine Plus Adjuvant Combinations for the Treatment of Melanoma NCT02425306 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Melanoma Vaccine Against Neoantigen and Shared Antigens by CD40 Activation and TLR Agonists In Patients With Melanoma (Including Ocular Melanoma) NCT04364230 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Phase I/II Trial of a Long Peptide Vaccine (LPV7) Plus TLR Agonists NCT02126579 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.