A Study to Evaluate the Long-Term Safety of MEDI-545 in Adult Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus or Myositis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: evidencehepatitiscancermimethotrexate
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsdays beforeperioddaykg
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 89 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Belimumab in Idiopathic Inflammatory Myositis NCT02347891 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety of Multi-Dose MEDI-545 in Adult Patients With Dermatomyositis or Polymyositis NCT00533091 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety and Tolerability of Multiple Doses of MEDI-546 in Adult Subjects With Scleroderma NCT00930683 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Abatacept Treatment in Polymyositis and Dermatomyositis NCT01315938 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Belimumab for the Treatment of Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis NCT01670565 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.