Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Stage I Bladder Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomastagecisplatinchemotherapyradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsdaysprostatedrugsclinical
• Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 15 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Stage II or Stage III Bladder Cancer That Was Removed by Surgery NCT00777491 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab With Chemoradiotherapy as Treatment for Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT02662062 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Atezolizumab in Treating Patients With Recurrent BCG-Unresponsive Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT02844816 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Sacituzumab Govitecan Before Radical Cystectomy for the Treatment of Non-Urothelial Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT05581589 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Proliposomal Intravesical Paclitaxel for Treatment of Low-Grade, Stage Ta, Non Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT03081858 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.