Randomized Study of Velcade-based Regimen With Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation in Newly-diagnosed Myeloma Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (131 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellmyocardialanginainfarctionheart failure
  Phrases that lowered it: randomizedsinglegroupmyelomathe study
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy Study Comparing Velcade Dexamethasone Thalidomide Versus Velcade Cyclophosphamide Dexamethasone as Induction Treatment in the Initial Management of Multiple Myeloma (IFM2013-04) NCT01971658 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Bortezomib (Velcade®), Lenalidomide (Revlimid®) and IV Busulfan (Busilvex®) in Patients Under 65 Years Old NCT01916252 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare VMP With HDM Followed by VRD Consolidation and Lenalidomide Maintenance in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma NCT01208766 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Treatment With Velcade (Bortezomib) Plus Dexamethasone (VD) or VD Plus Cyclophosphamide or VD Plus Lenalidomide in Patients With Multiple Myeloma Stabilized After 4 Cycles of VD NCT00908232 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Bendamustine, Prednisone and Velcade® for First-line Treatment of Patients With Symptomatic Multiple Myeloma NCT02237261 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.