A Multiple Ascending Dose Study of the mTOR Inhibitor (RAD001) in Combination With R1507 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcanceradvancedtumorsrecurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: kgdailyanticipated timethe studyreceive
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 188 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 257 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Allocation: non randomized (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of RAD001 + AMG479 for Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT01122199 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Dose Finding Study of RAD001 (Everolimus, Afinitor®) in Combination With BEZ235 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT01482156 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Study of R1507 in Combination With Multiple Standard Chemotherapy Treatments in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT00811993 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
• Phase 1 Study of BIIB022 (Anti-IGF-1R Monoclonal Antibody) in Relapsed/Refractory Solid Tumors NCT00555724 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Phase I, Open-label, Dose-escalation, Safety and PK Study of AZD6918 NCT00733031 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.