Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for the Treatment of Patients With Fanconi Anemia Lacking a Genotypically Identical Donor, Using a Chemotherapy Only Cytoreduction With Busulfan, Cyclophosphamide and Fludarabine

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: donorhlacellspatients musttransplant
  Phrases that lowered it: healthybodystudysevereblood
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 73 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 242 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7362 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 26325 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of the Effect of Blood Stem Cell Transplant After Chemotherapy Alone in Patients With Fanconi Anemia NCT03600909 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Stem Cell Transplant Using Peripheral and Cord Blood Stem Cells to Treat Severe Aplastic Anemia and Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT00604201 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Clofarabine and Low-Dose Total-Body Irradiation in Treating Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia Undergoing Donor Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplant NCT01252667 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• The PUMA Trial is a Trial of a Single ProHema Modulated-Cord Blood (CB) Unit as Part of a Double CB Transplant in Patients With Hematologic Malignancies. NCT01627314 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Fludarabine-IV Busulfan ± Clofarabine and Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) and Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT01471444 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.