A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of a New Influenza Candidate Vaccine MVA-NP+M1 In Healthy Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-03-31, after 2009-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: carcinomariskfindingcellecg
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineinfluenzavaccinationhealthyvolunteers -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 19 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 21 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Assess the Safety and Immunogenicity of a New Influenza Vaccine Candidate MVA-NP+M1 in Healthy Adults NCT00942071 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Study to Determine the Safety and Immunogenicity of Co-administration of the Candidate Influenza Vaccine MVA-NP+M1 and Seasonal Influenza Vaccine NCT01465035 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity of Co-administration of Candidate Influenza Vaccine MVA-NP+M1 and Viroflu® Seasonal Influenza Vaccine NCT02014168 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy, Safety, and Immunogenicity of a Plant-Derived Quadrivalent Virus-Like Particles (VLPs) Influenza Vaccine in Adults NCT03301051 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of MVA-NP+M1 in the Influenza H3N2 Human Challenge Model NCT03883113 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.