A Study of CDP870 as Add-on Meditation to Methotrexate (MTX) in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-08-31, after 2009-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapyheartcellactiveweeks
Phrases that lowered it: visitreactionarthritisdrugadministration -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11684 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 40717 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11684 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 58.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- certolizumab pegol, methotrexate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy Confirmation Study of CDP870 in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01451203 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- A Multi-center, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Certolizumab Pegol in Combination With Methotrexate in the Treatment of Disease Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (DMARD)-naïve Adults With Early Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01519791 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- A Multi-center, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Certolizumab Pegol in Combination With Methotrexate in the Treatment of Disease Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (DMARD)-naïve Adults With Early Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01521923 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Certolizumab Pegol for the Treatment of Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00717236 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Open Label Extension for Patients Coming From the Dosing Flexibility Study in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT00753454 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.