VRC 309: A Multi-Center, Open-Label, Randomized Phase I Study of an Investigational Influenza DNA Vaccine Followed by 2009/2010 Seasonal Influenza Trivalent Inactivated Vaccine (TIV) Compared to Two Injections of TIV in Adults 45-70 Years

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 4% of the time (217 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-09-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: equal toor equalsubject hasgreaterseizures
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinehealthyinfluenzaparticipantsdays
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 87 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 763 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• VRC 308: An Open-Label Phase I Study of the Safety and Immunogenicity of an Investigational H1 DNA Influenza Vaccine, VRC-FLUDNA057-00-VP, in Healthy Adults 18-70 Years Old NCT00973895 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• VRC 307: A Double-Blind, Randomized Phase I Study of the Safety and Immunogenicity of a Prime-Boost Schedule of the Investigational DNA Trivalent Influenza Vaccine, VRC-FLUDNA047-00-VP, Followed by the 2008/2009 Seasonal Influenza Trivalent Inactivat... NCT00858611 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• An Open-Label, Randomized Phase I Study in Healthy Adults of the Safety and Immunogenicity of Prime-Boost Intervals With Monovalent Influenza Subunit Virion (H5N1) Vaccine, A/Indonesia/05/2005 (Sanofi Pasteur, Inc.) Administered Alone or Following Re... NCT01086657 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Vaccine for Prevention of Bird Flu NCT00776711 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Influenza HA Ferritin Vaccine, Alone or in Prime-Boost Regimens With an Influenza DNA Vaccine in Healthy Adults NCT03186781 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.