Exploratory Study of Changes in Disease Activity and Biomarkers With ABR-215757 in Patients With Mild Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpatientscelluncontrolledheart failure
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalasthmathe studymildscreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A 52-Week, Randomized, Double-Blind, Parallel-Group, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of a 200-mcg Dose of IPP-201101 Plus Standard of Care in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02504645 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Two Doses of Anifrolumab Compared to Placebo in Adult Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02446912 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Anifrolumab Compared to Placebo in Adult Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02446899 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Study of Repeated Administration of a 200-mcg Dose of IPP-201101 Plus Standard of Care in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT03427151 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of CC-220 in Subjects With Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT03161483 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.