Lithium in Multiple System Atrophy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2011-08-31, after 2009-10-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “safety”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: to determinethe purposepurpose ofsymptomsfailure
Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofmultipleclinicalinvestigate the -
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 17 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 17 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4369 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 837 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 81.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lithium carbonate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of ATH434 in Participants with Multiple System Atrophy NCT05109091 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A Biomarker Study of ATH434 in Participants With MSA NCT05864365 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Safety and Tolerability of Lithium in Spinocerebellar Ataxia 2 (SCA2) NCT00998634 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Fluoxetine in Multiple System Atrophy Patients NCT01146548 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- A Pilot Study of Lithium in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01259388 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.