Metformin Versus Orlistat in Obese Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS) Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2009-11-30, after 2008-12-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: use duringtreatmentthree monthsadministrationobese
Phrases that lowered it: metformincomparedrug usebmistudy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 17.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 40 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 15108 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6120 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 17.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, metabolic, urogenital, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- orlistat
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- L-carnitine and Metformin in Obese PCOS Women. NCT03108963 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Cavitation Ultrasound in Treatment of Patients With PCOS NCT01622257 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Metformine and CC Compared With Placebo and CC for Induction Ovulation in PCOS Patients With Insulin Resistant NCT02523898 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
- Androgen Excess as a Cause for Adipogenic Dysfunction in PCOS Women NCT01889199 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Effect of Liraglutide in Obese Women With Polycystic Ovary Syndrome NCT05965908 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.