Trial of 6% HES130/0.4

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailurebleedingcongestivehemorrhage
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsefficacysolutionand safetysafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Obtain Volume Effect and Safety Data on 6 % Hydroxyethyl Starch 130/0.4 in Pediatric and Adult Patients Undergoing Major Elective Surgery NCT01127477 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Fluid Loading in Abdominal Surgery: Saline Versus Hydroxyethyl Starch (FLASH Study) NCT02502773 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Priming of Cardiopulmonary Bypass With Hydroxyethyl Starch 130/0.4 or Sodium Chloride 0.9% : Pilot Study in Adult Elective Conventional Cardiac Surgery NCT02906514 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Comparison of HES 130 in Balanced and in Unbalanced Solution NCT01301469 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Scandinavian Starch for Severe Sepsis/Septic Shock Trial NCT00962156 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.