SC12267 (4SC-101) in Combination With Methotrexate in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stablemgleast weeksiiiv
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsdosingradayrheumatoid
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of SM03 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis Receiving Methotrexate NCT04192617 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of GSK3196165 Versus Placebo and Tofacitinib in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT03980483 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Secukinumab in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis Taking Methotrexate NCT01359943 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Study of Subcutaneously Administered Tocilizumab in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00965653 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating The Efficacy And Safety Of SBI-087 In Seropositive Subjects With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01008852 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.