Effect of Vitamin D Supplement on Inflammation Markers in High-Risk Cardiovascular Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2011-05-31, after 2010-01-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: celltherapycancerdiseasestage
Phrases that lowered it: effect ofthe effectperiodblood pressurecardiovascular -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1445 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 27 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1445 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 704 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 62.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, metabolic, urogenital, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- paricalcitol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Effect of Vitamin D Supplementation on Cardiovascular Risk Factors NCT02750293 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Importance of Dosing Regimen for the Effect of Vitamin D Supplementation NCT03272126 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Trial Of Paricalcitol and Cholecalciferol(Vitamin D3) in the Treatment Of Secondary Hyperparathyroidism in Patients After ROUX-EN-Y Gastric Bypass Surgery NCT01138475 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D and Arterial Function in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease NCT01384539 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Effects of Treating Vitamin D Deficiency in Poorly Controlled Type 2 Diabetes NCT01855321 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.