Cancer Vaccine Study for Stage III, Unresectable, Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) in the Asian Population

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 40% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomastagechemotherapyunresectable
  Phrases that lowered it: factorclinical trialsolidabuseuse of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 37 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 3152 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 12503 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Tecemotide Following Concurrent Chemo-radiotherapy for Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02049151 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Phase III Lucanix™ Vaccine Therapy in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Following Front-line Chemotherapy NCT00676507 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Immunotherapy Study in Progressive or Relapsed Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01774578 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• OSE2101 Versus Chemotherapy in HLA-A2 Positive Patients With Advanced NSCLC After Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Failure NCT02654587 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Pembrolizumab in Untreated Extensive SCLC NCT02580994 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.