The Efficacy of Botulinum Toxin in Disabling Multiple Sclerosis (MS) Tremor
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-06-30, after 2008-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: botulinumtoxintypemslimb
Phrases that lowered it: upperhead andsecondaryaccordingsymptomatic -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 922 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 19 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 922 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 479 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- botulinum toxin type a
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of BOTOX Injections to Assess Change in Disease Symptoms in Adult Participants With Upper Limb Essential Tremor NCT05216250 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- Effectiveness of Botox on Reducing Rest Tremor in Parkinson's Disease NCT03301272 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Botulinum Toxin Injection Efficacy in the Treatment of Head Essential Tremor NCT02555982 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Botulinum Toxin in Patients With Spastic Lower Limb Paresis Associated With Multiple Sclerosis NCT04595045 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- A Pilot Efficacy and Safety Study of ST101 in Essential Tremor NCT01332695 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.