A Multiple Dose Study Of Ertugliflozin (PF-04971729, MK-8835) In Otherwise Healthy Overweight And Obese Volunteers (MK-8835-037)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-03-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerability pharmacokineticsand pharmacodynamicspharmacodynamics ofhoursfasting
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyevaluate theto evaluatepharmacokineticssafety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 262 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 613 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Single Escalating Dose Study Of Ertugliflozin (PF-04971729, MK-8835) Under Fed and Fasted Conditons In Healthy Volunteers (MK-8835-036) NCT00989079 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Pharmacokinetics, Safety, And Tolerability Of Ertugliflozin (PF-04971729, MK-8835) In Japanese And Western Healthy Participants (MK-8835-041) NCT01223339 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Effects of Once and Twice Daily Dosing Regimen of Ertugliflozin (PF-04971729, MK-8835) In Participants With Type 2 Diabetes (MK-8835-040) NCT01054300 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Study Of Safety And Efficacy Of Ertugliflozin (PF-04971729, MK-8835) In Participants With Type 2 Diabetes (MK-8835-016) NCT01059825 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Study To Estimate The Relative Bioavailability of Ertugliflozin (PF-04971729, MK-8835) in Healthy Adult Participants (MK-8835-039) NCT01114568 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.