Safety and Efficacy of Paricalcitol Capsules in Decreasing Serum Parathyroid Hormone Levels in Children Aged 10-16 With Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (181 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreaterchronicacute
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsefficacyevaluate theto evaluatesafety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 10 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety of Paricalcitol Capsules in Pediatric Subjects Ages 10 to 16 With Stage 5 Chronic Kidney Disease Receiving Peritoneal Dialysis or Hemodialysis NCT01382212 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Efficacy and Pharmacokinetics of Paricalcitol For Treatment of Secondary Hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in Pediatric Participants With Stage 5 Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) NCT04064827 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Paricalcitol in Reducing Serum Intact Parathyroid Hormone in Chronic Kidney Disease NCT01071070 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Safety and Efficacy Study of CTAP101 Extended-release Capsules in Children With Secondary Hyperparathyroidism NCT05543928 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Efficacy, PK and PD of CTAP101 (Calcifediol) ER Capsules for SHPT in HD Patients VDI NCT03602261 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.