A Study to Assess the Long-term Efficacy (24 Weeks) of MPC-4326 in Combination With a 2-3 Drug OBR Relative to the Efficacy of a 3-4 Drug ARV Regimen in Treatment Experienced HIV-1 Infected Subjects Who Are Failing Current Antiretroviral Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapyradiationhave receivedcombination within combination
  Phrases that lowered it: hiv infecteddrugscreeningantiretroviralproducts
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 15 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial, Followed by Single-Arm Treatment of PRO 140 NCT02483078 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• PRO 140 in Treatment-Experienced HIV-1 Subjects NCT03902522 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Phase IIIb Study of the Safety, Efficacy, and Tolerability of Switching to a Fixed-dose Combination of Abacavir/Dolutegravir/ Lamivudine From Current Antiretroviral Regimen NCT02105987 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Study of PRO 140 SC as Single Agent Maintenance Therapy in Virally Suppressed Subjects With CCR5-tropic HIV-1 Infection NCT02859961 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Open-Label Study Comparing Efficacy and Safety of ATV/RTV+3TC With ATV/RTV+TDF/FTC in HIV-Infected, Treatment Naïve Subjects, Followed by Treatment With ATV/RTV+3TC NCT01620944 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.