A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Blood Levels of PF-03654746 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimersafety tolerabilityplacebopftolerability pharmacokinetics
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsevaluateopensafetyaged
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 385 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 652 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multiple Dose Study of PF-04360365 In Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00945672 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• A Brief Study To Evaluate The Safety, Tolerability, And Blood Levels Of Multiple Doses Of PF-044467943 Or Placebo In Combination With Donepezil In Subjects With Mild To Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00988598 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Single Dose Escalation Study of PF-04360365 In Subjects With Mild To Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00733642 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Multiple IV Dose Study Of PF-04360365 In Patients With Mild To Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00722046 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating TheSafety And Efficacy Of PF-05212377 Or Placebo In Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease With Existing Neuropsychiatric Symptoms On Donepezil NCT01712074 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.