A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of CCX140-B in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationchronicin subjectspressurecancer
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateinclusivemass indexbody mass
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 70 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 168 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of CCX140-B in Subjects With Diabetic Nephropathy NCT01447147 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effect of CCX140-B on Urinary Albumin Excretion in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes and Albuminuria NCT01440257 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetics of CBX129801 in Patients With Type 1 Diabetes NCT01293461 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of XW003 Compared With Placebo in T2DM Patients NCT05680155 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• CANagliflozin Treatment And Trial Analysis-Sulfonylurea (CANTATA-SU) SGLT2 Add-on to Metformin Versus Glimepiride NCT00968812 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.