CANVAS - CANagliflozin cardioVascular Assessment Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-02-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreaterpatients musttherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: diabetesmellituswith typecardiovascularsafety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• CANagliflozin Treatment And Trial Analysis-Sulfonylurea (CANTATA-SU) SGLT2 Add-on to Metformin Versus Glimepiride NCT00968812 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Study to Determine Blood Levels of JNJ-28431754 (Canagliflozin) in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT01128985 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effect of JNJ-28431754 (Canagliflozin) on Post-Meal Glucose in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT01381887 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effectiveness, Safety, and Tolerability of Canagliflozin in Combination With Metformin in the Treatment of Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus With Inadequate Glycemic Control With Diet and Exercise NCT01809327 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• The CANTATA-D Trial (CANagliflozin Treatment and Trial Analysis - DPP-4 Inhibitor Comparator Trial) NCT01106677 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.