Effect of Ileal Bile Acid Transporter Inhibitor in Functional Constipation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: constipationpatientbowelpriorvisit
  Phrases that lowered it: laboratory testdiseasesrespiratorycardiovascularhematological
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Effects of RM-131 in Patients With Chronic Constipation NCT02137642 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Effect of TU-100 on Rectal Compliance, Rectal Sensation and Small Bowel and Colonic Transit in Females With Constipation NCT01139216 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Dose Responses of Efficacy and Safety of ASP0456 in Patient With Chronic Constipation NCT02425722 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study of Elobixibat (A3309) in Patients With Chronic Idiopathic Constipation NCT01007123 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Effects of ROSE-010 on GI Transit in Constipation Predominant Irritable Bowel Syndrome (C-IBS) Patients NCT01056107 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.