Safety Study of BMS-770767 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmsto determinedefinedpatientfunction
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsevaluate theto evaluatemetforminhistory
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 102 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 241 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7814 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 36518 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety Study of BMS-823778 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01111955 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Safety Study to Evaluate BMS-767778 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) NCT00707590 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate BMS-986036 in Obese Adults With Type-2 Diabetes NCT02097277 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Single Ascending Dose Study of BMS-820132 in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01105429 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Japanese Phase 1 Multiple Ascending Dose Study NCT01515202 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.