Pulse ACTH vs. MP for MS

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hassubject ishas historymriscreening subject
  Phrases that lowered it: gelmultipleparticipantadministeredcontraceptive
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 29.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 10370 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy Study of Adrenocorticotropin Hormone to Treat Multiple Sclerosis (MS) Relapses After Sub-responding to an Initial 3 Day Course of Intravenous (IV) Methylprednisolone NCT00947895 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• ACTH in Progressive Forms of MS NCT01950234 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• A Phase IIIb, Multicenter, International Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of EK-12 in Patients With RRMS NCT03283397 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• ACTH for Fatigue in Multiple Sclerosis Patients NCT02315872 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• A Study to Asses Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Monthly Long-acting IM Injection of GA Depot in Subjects With RMS NCT04121221 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.