A Research Trial of High Dose Vitamin C and Chemotherapy for Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 24% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientmetastaticcancermg dltherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: gemcitabineperformance ofhistory ortrialdrugs
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, endocrine: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7983 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 39307 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Trial of High-dose Vitamin C for Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT01515046 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Gemcitabine, Ascorbate, Radiation Therapy for Pancreatic Cancer, Phase I NCT01852890 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of IV Vitamin C in Combination With Standard Chemotherapy for Pancreatic Ca NCT01555489 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 2 Trial of High-dose Ascorbate for Pancreatic Cancer (PACMAN 2.1) NCT02905578 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Intravenous Vitamin C in Combination With Standard Chemotherapy for Pancreatic Cancer NCT00954525 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.