Davunetide (AL-108) in Predicted Tauopathies - Pilot Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-12-31, after 2010-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectdefinedmrionsetgreater
Phrases that lowered it: visitscreeningalzheimer20clinical trial -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 114 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 152 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 13 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 152 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 114 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry, metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Davunetide for the Treatment of Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT01110720 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- BIIB092 in Primary Tauopathies: CBS, nfvPPA, sMAPT, and TES NCT03658135 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
- Safety Study of TPI-287 to Treat CBS and PSP NCT02133846 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- Phase 1 Test-retest Evaluation of [18F]MNI-958 PET NCT03545789 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Tau Imaging in Subjects With Progressive Supranuclear Palsy, Corticobasal Degeneration and Healthy Volunteers NCT02167594 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.