Safety and Immune Response of Candidate H1N1 Influenza Vaccine GSK2340274A Following Seasonal Influenza Vaccination in Adults

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 2% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (776 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-10-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerstablestatusare eligibletherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccineinfluenzavaccinationmedical historyphysical examination
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 449 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1117 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Immunogenicity of H1N1 Vaccine With Trivalent Inactivated Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in Adults NCT00985673 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Safety, Immunogenicity, and Relative Efficacy of H1N1 Vaccines in Adults Aged 18 Years and Older NCT00979602 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immunogenicity of H1N1 Vaccines in Adults Aged 18 Years and Older NCT00985088 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immunogenicity of a Live-attenuated Universal Flu Vaccine Followed by an Inactivated Universal Flu Vaccine NCT03300050 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Study of GSK Biologicals' Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) Candidate Vaccine in Children Aged 10 to Less Than 18 Years NCT01035749 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.